‘Bitcoin is not a hedge against anything,’ concludes ‘Black Swan’ author Nassim Taleb

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Bitcoin (BTC) не является хеджером от чего-либо, заключил автор Black Swan и риск-аналитик Нассим Николас Талеб (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) после того, как пригласил своих 727 000 последователей в Твиттере обсудить вопрос о том, существует ли какая-либо корреляция между BTC и инфляцией.

ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ: ни один разумный аргумент, что #BTC – это хедж против инфляции, или, по сути, хедж-аг. There’s no reason not to. There’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to, there’s no reason not to.

Image: Twitter.

As mentioned, Taleb recently criticized bitcoin in an interview with CNBC, saying that there is absolutely no reason to associate it with anything economic and that BTC has the makings of an open source Ponzi scheme.

Bitcoin has the makings of an open Ponzi scheme, everyone knows it’s a Ponzi scheme, Taleb said. Basically, there is no correlation between inflation and bitcoin. No. I mean, you can have hyperinflation and Bitcoin is at zero. There’s no connection between them.

Public opinion

To expand on this point, Taleb then turned to his followers on Twitter and asked them to explain how bitcoin can be a hedge against inflation.

I’m still trying to get an answer on how #BTC can be a hedge against inflation, since it went up 1000% at a time when inflation was 1-3%? Also, where is the link between BTC and the shopping basket I will consume in the future? I’m looking for an answer. Ask your friends, he wrote.

A few hundred comments later, Taleb claimed he hadn’t found a single reasonable argument in the thread.

So far, 500 comments and no answers about the link between BTC and inflation, Taleb concluded, adding: By the way, if #BTC is ahead of inflation (ahead), i.e. the price is adjusted for future inflation, then surely someone who owns it would see a negative correlation with inflation?

Image: Twitter.

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Deficit ≠ Inflation coverage

Taleb also pointed out that bitcoins programmed scarcity (after all, you can’t mine more than 21 million BTC and new blocks can’t be discovered faster than one every 10 minutes) doesn’t make it a protection against inflation, since many things are scarce and have lost their value.

Even gold, which cryptocurrency enthusiasts often compare bitcoin to, lost its anti-inflationary qualities some time ago, according to Taleb.

Image: Twitter.

At Bretton Woods (1971) gold was no longer a hedge against inflation. Moreover, metals lost this property due to the speculative fever of ~1980. They have lost up to 90% of their value in real dollars, he writes, noting that gold’s only assets are its low volatility and the fact that it is not used for industrial purposes.

Still, Taleb admitted that there is indeed a connection between bitcoin and inflation, but that you have to be under the influence of hallucinogenic mushrooms to see it.

Here’s a secret: If I were on hallucinogenic (sic) drugs, I would finally see the connection between #BTC and inflation, he jokingly concluded.

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