Options traders target $80K by May, Skew suggests just 6% chance they’re right

With Coinbase’s long-awaited IPO scheduled for next month, options traders are betting that bitcoin will hit new highs again in the coming weeks.

The 24th. In March, the founders of crypto-currency analysis firm Glassnode tweeted that options traders on Deribit’s peer-to-peer crypto exchange were full of contracts that would expire on March 30. expire in April with a strike price of $80,000.

Contracts with a face value of 4,000 BTC were purchased at a price at least 50% higher than any other strike price.

Option contracts worth $6 billion expire this Friday. #bitcoin prices are high in April and many investors are betting on new $80,000 bets pic.twitter.com/xRipoAaD1F

– Jan and Jan (@Negentropic_) 24. March 2021

If the price is below $80,000 by the end of April, nearly 4,000 contracts will expire, indicating that the bitcoin market is still far from being a leader among derivatives traders.

According to crypto-derivatives data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the contract on April 30, but only a 6.19% probability indicate that the price of BTC will be above $80,000 at position expiration.

Estimated probability that BTC will be on the market on the 30th. April auction for $80,000: Crouch.

Significant volume has also built up around contracts with a strike price of $120,000, meaning some traders believe the price of bitcoin will more than double in the next five weeks. It is estimated that only 2.15% of bitcoins will have been traded by the 30th. April will reach $100,000 by the end of this term.

However, since many options traders build positions in different contracts with varying strike prices, some traders betting on $80,000 or $120,000 may not expect prices to reach such high levels.

The skew data shows that the 30. April contracts are currently the third most popular among options traders, with open interest currently equivalent to a face value of 38,700 BTC.

In second place on 21. June with 42,300 BTC for nominally open signatures, while on 26. March 117,900 BTC expire for nominal signatures, or $6 billion.

Open interest in BTC options on the expiration date of the contract : Crouch.

Although the institutional derivatives exchange Chicago Mercantile Exchange is stepping into bitcoin options trading in January 2020, Deribit still dominates options trading volume.

Skew estimates that 91% of BTC option contracts traded over the past 24 hours went to Deribit, followed by Bit.com at 5%, OKEx at 2%, and CME and LedgerX at about 1% each.

Related Tags:

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